Why 'We Don't Do Dates' Is the Most Damaging Phrase in Agile
Part 1 of our series: "Why 'Agile Teams Can't Give Delivery Dates' Is a Dangerous Lie"
The Hard Truth About Agile's Date Problem
"We don't do dates."
It's become the rallying cry of agile teams everywhere—a phrase delivered with righteous confidence that masks the growing gap between agile ideology and business reality.
In an ideal world, we'd all be running pure agile shops where everyone embraces uncertainty and stakeholders nod sagely when told "it's done when it's done." But in the real world, executives still demand delivery dates, boards require ROI projections, and PMOs expect timeline reports for cross-team dependencies.
Here's the inconvenient truth: refusing to engage with this reality isn't principled—it's irresponsible. It doesn't demonstrate agile purity—it demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of our responsibility to help organisations make complex decisions in uncertain environments.
The Dangerous False Dichotomy
The agile community has created a damaging myth: that providing delivery dates somehow betrays agile principles. On one side, agile purists treat forecasting like a sin, claiming it will inevitably lead to command-and-control practices. On the other, traditional project managers cling to their detailed Gantt charts as if complexity and uncertainty don't exist.
This false choice is tearing organisations apart.
The reality? Most businesses operate in the uncomfortable middle, where teams try to be agile while leadership expects predictability. The divide isn't just theoretical—it creates very real friction that erodes trust, damages careers, and ultimately undermines the business value agile was supposed to deliver.
Why "But We're Agile" Isn't Working Anymore
"But forecasting delivery dates isn't agile!" I hear this constantly, typically from teams who've been burnt by arbitrary deadlines turned into commitments. Let me be blunt: this statement reflects trauma, not agile principles.
The problem isn't forecasting delivery dates. The problem is how those forecasts are created and used.
Good delivery date forecasting:
Informs investment decisions and capacity planning
Helps teams understand their own delivery patterns
Enables meaningful conversations about scope trade-offs
Supports evidence-based prioritisation across portfolios
Toxic delivery date forecasting:
Forces teams to commit to arbitrary deadlines
Ignores changing requirements and emerging insights
Treats estimates as promises rather than probabilities
Uses dates as weapons to pressure teams into working harder
Business Reality vs. Agile Ideology
Let's get pragmatic. Your organisation needs to:
Coordinate multiple interdependent teams
Make go/no-go decisions about investments
Communicate realistic timelines to customers
Align resource allocation with strategic priorities
These aren't anti-agile needs—they're business realities. Dismissing them as "not agile enough" is both unhelpful and unsustainable. The question isn't whether we should forecast delivery dates, but how we can forecast effectively while preserving agile principles.
Stop Hiding—Draw Better Boundaries Instead
The problem isn't that we can't forecast in agile environments. It's that we've been cowardly about drawing proper boundaries. Here's how to replace avoidance with actual leadership:
1. Confront the Knowledge Gap Head-On
Let's stop pretending the issue is our forecasting technique. The real problem? Most stakeholders have never been taught how complex work differs from factory production. They're applying manufacturing certainty to knowledge work uncertainty.
Instead of nodding and secretly resenting their requests, tackle this directly: "I understand you need dates. I'm going to teach you how to read and use probabilistic forecasts, because that's what works for complex work." Then drill them on interpreting confidence intervals until they get it. Refusing to build this literacy in your leadership team isn't enlightened agile practice—it's setting everyone up to fail.
When they push back with "just give me the date," be prepared to say: "Estimates are not commitments. I can give you probability distributions based on what we know today. If you treat these as promises, you're guaranteeing disappointment."
2. Make Uncertainty Visible and Undeniable
The width of your confidence ranges isn't a bug to minimize—it's a crucial feature that communicates reality. Don't apologize for wide ranges; they're honest reflections of genuine uncertainty.
Create visual forecasts that force stakeholders to reckon with this reality. Show historical delivery variations. Present multiple projections. When they ask "which one is correct?" reply, "that's the wrong question—they're all potential futures with different probabilities."
Agile isn't about achieving certainty; it's about making better decisions despite uncertainty. Help stakeholders feel that uncertainty viscerally rather than hiding it in comforting but false precision.
3. Flip the Accountability Dynamic
When delivery forecasts are misinterpreted as deadlines, teams are blamed for "missing estimates." This is backward. Create explicit agreements about how forecasts will be used before producing them.
Try this: "We'll provide reliable probabilistic forecasts based on real data. You agree not to convert them into artificial deadlines. Estimates are tools for planning, not weapons for coercion. The moment they become deadlines, they lose all forecasting value."
If they can't agree to these terms, don't produce forecasts. Poor forecasts are worse than none at all.
4. Expose the Scope-Date Connection Relentlessly
Most delivery "failures" are actually scope management failures. Make this painfully obvious with prominent burn-up charts that track scope growth alongside progress.
When stakeholders push for earlier dates while adding requirements, you must provide real-time, visually immediate feedback: "Here's exactly how these new requirements affect our likelihood of delivering by your target date."
Force the conversation about trade-offs instead of pretending they don't exist. When they say "we need both," be prepared to say "that's not possible with our current capacity. Here are your options."
The Courage to Lead Rather Than Hide
The central challenge isn't technical—it's having the courage to educate stakeholders rather than placate them. This requires three things most teams lack:
The confidence to establish boundaries: "We'll forecast, but we won't pretend certainty exists where it doesn't."
The skill to educate upward: Teaching executives to understand uncertainty and complexity isn't optional—it's an essential part of your job as a delivery professional.
The backbone to challenge counterproductive patterns: When someone says "Just tell me the date," you need the courage to respond "That's the wrong question, and here's why."
This approach isn't about avoiding dates—it's about providing better forecasts that actually work in complex environments. It satisfies business needs while respecting reality. It's not a compromise—it's leadership.
The False Purity Test Is Killing Your Effectiveness
The "no-dates" dogma has become a purity test in many agile circles, a way of signaling you're one of the enlightened. This is nonsense. True agility isn't about avoiding forecasts—it's about creating forecasts that reflect reality and building the organizational maturity to use them properly.
If we're honest, too many agile practitioners have been using "we don't do dates" as a shield to avoid difficult conversations. That's not agile—it's avoidance. Real agility requires:
Building the intestinal fortitude to have hard conversations about uncertainty
Teaching stakeholders to make decisions with incomplete information
Creating transparent forecasts that show the real state of work
Helping the organization balance predictability and adaptability
It's time to stop hiding behind methodology dogma and start leading these changes. After all, the first rule of agile is delivering value to customers—and that requires teaching them how to interpret forecasts in a complex, uncertain world.
In Part 2 of this series, we'll move from the "why" to the "how," exploring the five essential inputs for reliable delivery date forecasting and providing detailed implementation guidance. We'll show you exactly how to put these principles into practice, from managing batch sizes to implementing collaborative estimation processes.
